In December 2024 China authorised the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River. The dam, which will be constructed in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo (Tsang Po) River and is part of China’s 14th five-year plan and aims to produce 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. The project cost is estimated at USD 137 billion, making it the biggest infrastructure project globally. This project, according to Chinese state media, will play a major role in meeting China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, stimulate related industries such as engineering, and create jobs in Tibet. This New Chinese Dam is expected to be much larger than the Three Gorges Dam (that is currently the world’s largest dam cum hydroelectric power station). The Chinese also emphasize that the dam would not have a major impact on the environment or on downstream water supplies. Now on the surface it may seem a harmless infrastructure project being constructed by China which if anything is a good thing for everyone but downstream countries like India and Bangladesh are worried about this project despite China’s assurances as they believe that this can potentially impact downstream flow and local ecology. Environmentalists in India have raised concerns about the mega-project in an ecologically sensitive, mountainous region. They say harnessing the river could affect water flow in the country’s northeastern states and Bangladesh. In Bangladesh where the river flows beyond India — that tens of thousands living along riverbanks could be affected if downstream flow is reduced. In addition to that what’s really got them worried is that despite this proposed dam being much larger than the three gorges dam (as mentioned earlier) Chinese authorities have so far not indicated how many people the Tibet project would displace and how it would affect the local ecosystem, one of the richest and most diverse on the plateau. This Chinese failure on sharing details has got lower riparian states worried. There are fears that this dam would turn out to be just like the dams constructed on the Mekong River by China which caused problems for downstream countries. (Something which Beijing denies but there is evidence to back up this claim.) While in India the issue is just not about ecology or merely water security but also of national security as this dam is close to the disputed Sino-Indian border over which both India and China have fought a war over in 1962 and have had several standoffs in the past and despite the thaw in October of 2024 between the two sides, mutual mistrust still persists which is pretty evident from Mr Rajnath Singh India’s defence Minister comment that “The Indian government is on alert” when asked about this dam by PTI as well as the statement from India’s External Affairs Ministry that “We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests”. Showing that this move by China will not be perceived nicely by New Delhi and possibly tensions between the two Nuclear armed Rivals. Thus, showing that this new Chinese Dam on the Brahmaputra may have some serious implications for South Asian water security as this dam does have the potential to reduce water flows to lower riparian states like India and Bangladesh and also has a negative impact on wider regional peace and stability as such a decision would increase tensions between India and China the two nuclear armed Rivals and emerging superpowers.
Sources:
